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My predictions for 2023

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  1. Tech Layoffs, primarily in the Bay Area, will continue. As a result, rents and housing prices in US metropolitan areas will drop significantly. At the same time, the big names will hire more in Europe and probably Asia.
  2. Generative AI will continue to become a commodity. It will replace SEO writing, editorial stock photography and other commoditized content assets to a large degree. Google will react with substantial adjustments to their ranking algorithms and probably redesign the search box to something entirely new.
  3. At the same time, AI is applied to more severe fields in government, health care, the financial sector and the like. As the flaws become more evident, there will be one prominent case of a severe impact on an individual’s life that will be discussed broadly in global media and a fiery discussion in society starts. This discussion will end abruptly by introducing new drastic regulations, probably throughout the whole western world.
  4. Prices for energy and, thus, transport will continue to rise and accelerate the trend of deglobalization. We will continue to face shortages as supply chains adapt.
  5. Europe’s economy will cool down severely, but not collapse entirely. Europe’s governments will try to absorb inflation with redistributing policies and probably ban anonymous (cash) transactions entirely.
  6. In tech, the trend towards oligopolies will accelerate significantly: Jobs will become more demanding and more niche but higher paid for software-only companies. Tech jobs in “old economy” organisations will diverge from “new economy” jobs even more. A shrinking economy and high interest rates will create immense barriers to entry for startups. After a drop of 45% in IPOs in 2022, we might see IPOs dropping even further, probably by another 50%.